This first cut question comes from Bill Mitchell. I received more questions about this than any other question.
第一個切入問題來自比爾·米切爾。我收到關於這個問題的提問比任何其他問題都多。
He writes, Warren, in a 2003 Fortune article.
他寫道，華倫，在2003年《財富》雜誌的一篇文章中。
You argued for imports of certificates to limit trade deficits and said these import certificates basically amounted to a tariff.
你主張通過進口憑證來限制貿易逆差，並說這些進口憑證基本上等同於關稅。
But recently, you called tariffs an act of economic war.
但最近，你稱關稅是一種經濟戰爭行為。
Has your view on trade barriers changed, or do you see import certificates as somehow distinct from tariffs?
你對貿易壁壘的看法是否改變了，或者你認為進口憑證在某種程度上不同於關稅？
Yeah, well, the import certificates were distinct, but their goal was to balance imports against exports.
是的，進口憑證確實不同，但它們的目的是平衡進出口。
And so that the trade deficit would not grow in an enormous way.
這樣貿易逆差就不會以巨大的方式增長。
In fact, it would have, and it had various other provisions in it to help third-world countries at that time.
事實上，它本可以，而且當時它還包含了其他條款來幫助第三世界國家。
As they were called to perhaps catch up a little bit.
正如他們所說，或許能稍微趕上一點。
And they had a variety of aspects to them, but basically, they were designed to balance trade.
它們有多個方面，但基本上，它們是為了平衡貿易而設計的。
And I think you can make some very good arguments for the fact that balanced trade is good for the world.
我認為你可以提出一些很好的論點來說明平衡貿易對世界有益。
And the more balanced trade there is, the better.
而且貿易越平衡越好。
It will continue to be better for cocoa to be raised in Ghana, and coffee in Colombia, and a few things.
可可繼續在迦納種植，咖啡在哥倫比亞種植，以及其他一些東西，這將持續是更好的選擇。
And over time, the American industry has gone from being an agricultural country.
隨著時間的推移，美國工業已經從一個農業國家轉變。
This was nothing but a country, I mean, virtually, and that was only 250 years ago.
這曾經只是一個國家，我是說，實際上，那只是250年前。
And we have become a very industrial country, and we did not want to make that a situation.
我們已經成為一個非常工業化的國家，我們不希望讓這成為一種情況。
In my view, where we ran greater and greater deficits, building up greater and greater debts against the country.
在我看來，我們不希望不斷增加的逆差，使國家背負越來越多的債務。
So I designed this import certificate thing, which Charlie thought was a little too much like Rube Goldberg.
所以我設計了這個進口憑證的想法，查理認為這有點像魯布·戈德堡的設計。
I don’t know whether that time name is, but it’s gimmicky.
我不知道那個名字是什麼，但它有點花哨。
But, it’s certainly a lot better than anything, I think, than we’re talking about now.
但是，它肯定比我們現在討論的任何東西都要好得多。
And there’s no question that trade can be an act of war, and I think it’s led to bad things.
毫無疑問，貿易可以是一種戰爭行為，我認為它已經導致了一些不好的事情。
Just the attitudes it’s brought out in the United States.
僅僅是它在美國引發的態度問題。
I mean, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world.
我是說，我們應該期待與世界其他國家進行貿易。
And we should do what we do best, and they should do what they do best.
我們應該做我們最擅長的事情，他們應該做他們最擅長的事情。
我不認為它…
That’s what we did originally.
那是我們最初所做的。
I mean, we were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago, and we traded it.
我是說，250年前我們擅長生產煙草和棉花，我們進行了貿易。
And we want a prosperous world, with eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that are what I would call quite unstable.
我們希望有一個繁榮的世界，有八個擁有核武器的國家，包括一些我認為相當不穩定的國家。
So I do not think it’s a great idea to try and design a world where a few countries say, “ha, ha, ha, we won.”
所以我不認為設計一個世界，讓少數國家說「哈哈，我們贏了」是一個好主意。
And other countries are envious.
而其他國家則心生嫉妒。
So my import certificate idea, which went no place.
所以我的進口憑證想法，沒有取得任何進展。
I think we’ve got extra copies, not a great demand for the copies.
我想我們還有一些多餘的副本，對這些副本的需求不大。
Anybody that… And if you’d like and write the office, I think we could probably send you a copy of it.
任何人…如果你願意並寫信到辦公室，我想我們可能會寄給你一份副本。
But the main thing to do is not use… “Trade should not be a weapon”.
但最重要的是不要使用…「貿易不應該是一種武器」。
And the United States, we’ve won.
而美國，我們已經贏了。
I mean, we have become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing.
我是說，我們已經成為一個非常重要的國家，從一無所有開始。
250 years ago, there’s nothing been anything like it.
250年前，沒有什麼能與之相比。
And it’s a big mistake in my view, when you have seven and a half billion people that don’t like you very well.
在我看來，當你有75億人不太喜歡你時，這是一個巨大的錯誤。
And you’ve got 300 million that are crawling in some way about how well they’ve done.
而你有3億人在某種程度上對他們的成就感到不滿。
And, I don’t think it’s right, and I don’t think it’s wise.
我認為這不對，我也認為這不明智。
I do think that the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes, it won’t be at our expense.
我確實認為世界其他地區越繁榮，這不會以我們的利益為代價。
The more prosperous we’ll become, and the safer we’ll feel, and your children will feel someday.
我們會變得更加繁榮，我們會感到更安全，你的孩子們有一天也會感受到。
So that’s… But don’t expect my import certificate idea to go down there with Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations or anything.
所以…但不要期望我的進口憑證想法能與亞當·斯密的《國富論》相提並論。
